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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T14:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T14:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32282/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and directly south in STEREO A COR2. The likely source is an M1.6 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T14:22Z from AR 3768 with associated eruption seen as dimming and post-eruptive arcades in SDO 171/193/335 and GOES SUVI 284, centered around S15W30. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T02:01Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 77.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.5 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 14.88 hour(s)
Difference: 11.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-07-30T22:53Z

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